How Will Conservatives Win the Swing Vote?

The Rationalist. Buried in this CNN article regarding Colin Powell’s thoughts on the race controversy surrounding Professor Henry Gates is a very interesting comment on his ideas about the future of the Republican party.

“If the party is going to succeed in the future, the advice I’m giving to my Republican friends is you’ve got to find some way to reach out and draw moderates and independents more toward the right so that we can build a party that will win.”

Indeed, that’s the million dollar question:  How do you attract the swing vote?  The significance of this is understated by Powell.  During the 2008 election, President Obama clearly didn’t win by turning southern evangelists into liberals.  Rather, it was the acquisition of the two to three percent of the country that was ideologically split between the two parties.

What, then, is the best way to capture the moderate vote, while also maintaining the strength of the strong far-right base of conservatism?  At first blush, it seems like the best way would to be to have a platform that both conservatives and moderates can stand behind.  Regrettably, this is usually near impossible.

It’s hard to sell a moderate stance on social issues to hard-right conservatives, just as it is difficult to sell a fiscally conservative platform to moderates who don’t mind a little government regulation and intervention.  Both Republican front runners in the 2008 nomination race had issues reconciling the different wings of conservatism.  Mitt Romney, typically a fiscal hawk, was largely shunned by the evangelistic voting-base due to his comparably liberal social values.  Similarly, John McCain’s “Maverick” persona was never perceived as being conservative enough; he ended up moving more towards the right in the primary race, resulting in the alientation of conservative leaning centrists.  Barack Obama, conversely, attempted to move more towards the center, gladly picking up the votes abandoned by McCain’s appeasement of the far right base.

If, in fact, there is a dichotomy between moderate and hard-right political ideologies, how does one unite the two voting blocks?  For the answer, one must only look into the recent past.  David Axelrod and Barack Obama present us with the answers.

Force of Personality

Even during his presidential campaign, a time in which political platforms change with the state currently stumping in, President Obama was certainly liberal enough to worry most moderates.  But when it counted, he easily managed to capture the swing votes and secure the election.  It’s arguable that this was largely due to his majestic stagecraft and oratory skills, evidenced most blatantly by his DNC convention acceptance speech, pictured here.  His presentation and sense of grandeur resonated favorably with people, even if they did not like or support some of his policies.  In effect, even those who didn’t agree with all of his proposed policies felt that Obama was the right man for the job.  This feeling perpetuates today.  Over half the nation disapproves of his economic, healthcare, and spending plans and their resultant bolstering of  government expansion, but over half of the nation still approve of him as president.  Barack Obama has continued to prove that people don’t necessarily have to agree with you to vote for you.  This is highlighted by the swing vote, where the voter feels that they are attempting to choose between “the lesser of two evils”.

Political Fatigue

Just as Obama exploited “Bush Fatigue”, in which the majority of the populace were exhausted with the policies of George W. Bush, it’s possible that a Republican candidate might be able to capture moderates in the same manner.  After the national debt has been expanded by trillions of dollars and inflation has resulted from the stimulus bill, moderates may be willing to swing to a conservative candidate, who despite not being a true centrist is simply something different.  This generally takes time, but eventually more citizens will begin to associate Obama with his policies, rather than his appealing personality.  Obviously, this won’t hurt his perception by the far left, but it is likely to impact his approval rating by centrists.

In all likelihood, for a Republican to capture the swing vote, he or she must embody the same showmanship of Obama, and benefit from his political excesses. Some likely candidates to compete are Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindal, and Sarah Palin.  Each one of them has some innate talent on the stage, but all will need serious improvement to contest Obama in that arena.  The political fatigue is certainly beginning already, although Obama still has plenty of time to maneuver to improve his position.  Without both elements, another four years of Mr. Obama is likely.

Author’s Note:  Interestingly, the crux of these two factors is whether the swing vote associates an individual’s policy with the candidate/president themselves.  In “Political Fatigue”, voters had securely linked Bush with negative policy and wars, opening the door to a candidate who they largely judged on personality.  In “Force of Personality”, people resonated with Obama personally, even if they were against or ambivalent to his policies, which highlighted the disassociation.

The Rationalist is a graduate of The United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, where he majored in Information Systems Technology and Economics. He is currently studying law at George Washington University. He invites you to follow him on Twitter (@the_rationalist).